National and Subnational estimates for Germany

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany.

Table of Contents


Expected daily cases by region


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated cases with a date of infection on the 2020-03-20) in Germany, stratified by region, can be summarised by whether cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively.

National summary

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-03-20)

Estimate
New infections 5941 (4000 – 7218)
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 (1.1 – 1.8)
Doubling time (days) 13 (8.3 – 39)
Adjusted R-squared 0.68 (0.21 – 0.93)


Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-20) of the number of cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of infection. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval. Estimates are shown until the 2020-03-20.Dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Estimates are shown until the 2020-03-20. Light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Regional Breakdown

Data availability

Limitations

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 4: Cases with date of infection on the 2020-03-20 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 90% credible interval). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-20. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of infection (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-20.Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-20. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions

Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of infection (light grey ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-03-20. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-20)

Region New infections Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Baden Wurttemberg 1699 (519 – 2650) Unsure 1.5 (0.7 – 2.2) 9.5 (3.7 – Cases decreasing)
Bavaria 1986 (950 – 2709) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 1.9) 11 (4.2 – Cases decreasing)
Berlin 320 (129 – 693) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 2.4) 9.3 (3 – Cases decreasing)
Brandenburg 125 (45 – 324) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.7 – 3) 8.9 (3.7 – Cases decreasing)
Bremen 49 (9 – 102) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.6 – 3.8) 8.3 (2.6 – Cases decreasing)
Hamburg 194 (126 – 356) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.8) 39 (5.6 – Cases decreasing)
Hesse 703 (220 – 3389) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.9 – 5) 7.8 (2.8 – Cases decreasing)
Lower Saxony 708 (233 – 2046) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.7 – 3) 6.4 (2.5 – 59)
Mecklenburg Vorpommern 68 (13 – 217) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.3 – 3.7) 6.6 (1.7 – Cases decreasing)
North Rhine Westphalia 1520 (869 – 2827) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.9) 14 (4.7 – Cases decreasing)
Rhineland Palatinate 547 (218 – 933) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.2) 6.1 (3.6 – 16)
Saarland 219 (52 – 770) Increasing 2.3 (0.9 – 5) 4.8 (2.1 – Cases decreasing)
Saxony 309 (153 – 774) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 7.7 (4.2 – Cases decreasing)
Saxony Anhalt 78 (48 – 136) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 12 (5 – Cases decreasing)
Schleswig Holstein 113 (41 – 217) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 13 (4.7 – Cases decreasing)
Thuringia 112 (42 – 283) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.7) 13 (4.6 – Cases decreasing)


Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-03-20) of the number of cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

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